S&P500 - Setup (21/Mar/2012) update

Another gap down open after a test to previous lows (now resistance) during overnight.
According to plan, added @ 1393/4 (ES_F ~ 1399/1400 SPX). (Now: 2 @ 1404 + 1 @ 1394)
To the bears case, price must stay in yday range or below. If not, bulls will lead the way...

The plan is based on the expectation SPX will test (at least) 1377 (71/72 ES_F) without any strong rebound. So break even it after today´s open (cover ES_F: 1 @ 1396 + 2 @ 1401.5), as I did not like first hour candle...

Short term overbought again, so breakout will depend on the participants reaction, which by the way, spent the first half-hour buying the dip, and the second and third dumping some more protection. Again, not good for the bulls, good for our plan.

JPYUSD (SPOT) - Short term pullback?

The plunge was fast. A strong ADX is not a good sign for bulls... Last year lows can be next!

Although price action last few days gave buyers some hope, they still need to regain the 22 days e.m.average.

S&P500 - 3rd hour update

Price is flirting with the 10 days e.m.average (daily basis). As suspected, we had the hourly breakdown. I maintain my targets @ 1377 & 1369. Not expecting S&P500 to regain 1400

I was waiting for a pullback today after the open and a test to yday lows (while considering to add there) - view setup 21/Mar/2012. It did not happen. Out of adds for now...

Participants did not (like yday) run into protection at the open, on the contrary, as VIX steadily falls in the last  2 hours, volume in puts surge, suggesting traders are dumping them... 







Cisco - A failure is not allowed

Two daily closes above the double top. Will it hold?

On tradable basis, 20.30 is the level to spot weakness...

EUR/USD - Under 1.3172

As noted, bulls are under pressure here. Next stop @ 1.3112...

Above 1.3172 we might have another hourly rally...

Euro/dolar - Bearish bias

I maintain a bearish view under 1.3239. Expecting 1.27...

Short term oversold conditions can fuel another test to 1.33, but an hourly close under 1.3172 would leave the bulls under terrible pressure...



S&P500 - Setup 21/Mar/2012

Plan: The hourly (bearish) divergence is a short term top. Market is going to "correct it" and test last week breakout.
The bias is up so I just need a break above 1408 to be wrong (and get out!)

Targets: 1377 and 1369...

Add to initial position with an hourly close under 1399.59

S&P500 - Still on the ropes

Bulls cannot fail here...



S&P500 - Bears on the ropes

As initial put buying eases, bears have now a chance, as long as they manage to hold 1406

Bulls will try to get the bears out. They need to regain 1408.

Do not forget: Above 1371 the bias is up and markets just need a friendly VIX









Short squeeze or pullback?

Some put buying today may push the market higher late in the day, supported buy a squeeze.
Bulls must push ES_F above 1402 so they can keep bears under pressure and carry on with this scenario.

Seems almost impossible, but under 1402, one can defend a test to last week breakout!

EURO - Jusqu´ici tou va bien

A little stronger since last update, but still "right on track"...

Cisco - Ready to breakout?

CSCO kept above "our window" and is testing the highs again. Breakout (above 20.49)?
Above previous "double top", buy weakness targeting 21.25 or even 22.22 (golden retracement).

A failure here would support a short term plan. One could defend a new test to the 10 (or 20) days e.m.average, if things get "uglier", a test to the year lows...