MSFT - A breakdown with a gap down...

Yday close will be the key (31.94). I defend a test to the 200 days e.m.a. (now at 28.28)



EUROSTOXX50 - Bulls have (lots of) work to do...

European big-caps

Europe has clearly doubted, at least until now, from the US moves (or should I say, from FED´s power?). In 2000 and 2007 tops, european big-caps were also a good warn of what to expect...
One could argue that S&P500 is the leader and the others markets will manage to follow.
I think under 2500 this is pure hope...

On a daily basis, the breakdown is already happening. Take a good look to the bearish divergence during LTRO joke...



S&P500 - Update 04/Apr/2012

Daily chart is bearish under 1407 (1401 ES_F) but watch out for short term support...

Where are the bears?

Everyone is sure of the upside potential of the S&P500. Price is giving them a strong support...

Sentiment is evident, as bulls are clearly the majority here.

I will watch carefully 1407 (1401 ES_F) as the key level for the next few hours. Keep in mind another round of bearish divergences on the daily chart.

I am waiting to (again) short this market. Going against the tide? Yup, but definitely against the crowd!...

S&P500 - Quarter ending this week...

An exhaustion gap appears at the end of a trend and its usually a sign of shifting momentum.
Until I can be sure, today´s gap could also be a continuation one, which would point, as the daily chart, to 1433/37 until the end of the week.

I will stay neutral above 1414...

As defended yday, I would not trade a straight move up, but I am definitely curious about the nature of today´s gap, as participants, for now, clearly already made his bets at the open. They bought calls, while dumping protecion, again...

S&P500 - Setup 26/Mar/2012

Just enough to risk about 3 points (hourly).

Looking to a test to friday´s close...

(now -1 @ 1404 and stop @ 1407 ES_F)

S&P500 - As you wish, Your Highness...

One close under 10 days e.m.a. gave me some hope, as I was short, for a test to 22 days or even 50 days e.m.a.
It looks like we have more to run before I can get my (decent) pullback.
S&P500 can easily touch 1432 this week, as long as price keeps above 1400...

I am not going to trade a straight up move to there, so I will be waiting for some kind if consolidation here, to get in.
To sell this, S&P500 must be under 1407.75 (ES_F 1401/2), and the hourly chart must support a clear setup (as in previous plan)...

VIX is trying to tell something around here, but one should first listen to price, as it is the one who rules, the King...