SPY - Forget the cliff...

A divergence between price and Weekly MACD is a strong signal...

First close under 10 days e.m.a. since 19/11/2012. Looking down if price does not regain Thursday close (142.63).

This leg down is still very similar to the previous "healthy ones", so stay away from the short side above 143 and perhaps right above 142.63 (if you have an "aggressive profile).

 

S&P500 - Above 1379...

First i must emphasize that one should give the index some credit as price regained 200 days e.m.a.

In the meanwhile, weekly chart is still perfectly clear and one should keep in mind its strong signals as they have be very useful in the past few years. (WATCH MACD).

Again, one should remind the furious (with big volume) break down of the neckline so widely discussed. With another bearish divergence, oscillator is "leaving" overbought zone after, what looks like, a failed test to previous lows (and supports).

Obviously, get ready for some weird and aggressive "fiscal cliff spikes", but i really think price behavior can and will, give us some clues! Watch 1408.75 and 1422.38 on the upside, expect 1380 or even new lows if markets fail here...   

Bears everywhere?

VIX vs SPX

Investors intelligence (read more here)

 

SPY - And now...

Something completely different?

SPX - After 1375...

As a reminder (read more here "The end"):

"First target around 1375 and second is... Well, we will get back to these charts if price tests 1375 or 1437"

4th November SPX @ 1414.20

As expected, price tested 200 days e.m.a.. Price action after that test was strongly bearish: a week trading around 1375 incapable to get back on track.

If price can´t get back above 1375/82 one should expect the index to give up all his gains for the year and trade under 1270. This is the second target. Back to the formula if SPX closes 2 days above 1382 or under 1270.

One small alert, SPX have an important support around 1345/52, which can always get the bulls back on his feet again, at least for a while!

K.I.S.S. -"Keep It Simple (and) Stupid" 

SPY above 142.24/8

Dangerous day, as we have pay-rolls, price is under 21 day e.m.a. but above last week consolidation.
Weekly charts are still on "building long term top", but ST is the key for "P/L action"...

SPY - A clear break down, but...

I really don´t think its another (bear) trap (Weekly chart). In the meanwhile, watch for a short term up move if SPY holds above 142.25...

Under 141.92 expect further weakness and possibly a test to 140.35 or even 139.1, this week!