Saturday, May 26, 2012

Emini - Preparing a plan

Short term charts are telling me that we are (again) going lower. That´s my expectation if markets can´t take out last week highs (1329.75 ES_F).
Key level to watch for weakness and to get in: 1319, 1314, 1311.5, 1304/6.
The next natural target is in the range [1250,1265].
See also S&P500 - "Underwater" (cash levels)




Underwater...

S&P500 closed under 1371...


Closed also under 1343...


And under 1329...



Ok, one can argue that we are above 1310/16 and that´s the key level for those who defend a (short term) rally. I agree, so I won´t short above that.




Where are the bears?

As markets start to fall, everyone wants to find the bottom. Technicians use several indicators created from price (momentum indicators) and participants behavior (sentiment indicators).

One could expect, as prices plunge about 10% from the recent highs, that bears are everywhere, but I think that is an incorrect assumption...




As one can easily notest, this can be only the beginning...




Thursday, May 24, 2012

Bear, just accept it... (Cash levels)

Weekly chart is pointing down. In this environment, one should look for rallies to go with the tide. I will...

Short term charts support the idea of a pullback if price manage to hold above 1316. On the upside, we have several resistances, but for now, just accept the idea of a pullback above 1316. Price might accelerate above 1329.

I am bearish, but I accept a pullback...