When I started following the markets "professionally", S&P500 (the world biggest reference as a stock index) was flirting with all time highs. We were in December 1999.
As for any "Bear", my career was condemned since the beggining, and if you can remember those times, you knew that everyone who thought about sell/short the market was "obviously insane". And at the time (does anyone now?), no one was aware of "The EVENT"...
My surprise about what happened in the next 2/3 years was huge. The markets had the biggest plunge ever, confirming my worst expectations, and when I started to feel "some kind of hope", Mr. "I know what I did" does it again, and takes what he defended to be, the path to "unexpected and prolonged contractions".
For me it was enough, I was convinced of what was going to happen, and in the 2004 spring, even with another "DEBT DRIVEN rally" going on, I knew I couldn´t wait longer, I had to "tell the world what I knew". I had to warn at least my family and friends.
You can imagine what happens to someone with these kind of ideias, in a matter of weeks I became an "apocalipse knight", or, even worse, a fool not worthy of attention.
Fortunately (I think), I was not only a "Bear", but I was also a "Contrarian". A contrarian is, by definition, someone who takes up a position opposed to that of the majority, no matter how unpopular.
So I wrote it, "as a fool"...
We took the wrong road years ago. Stock market prices manage to hold longer and higher then I expected, but did not manage to avoid another plunge. This plunge was even bigger and hit faster.
Again, "those in charge" were in denial, , and once more, tried to delay the inevitable. They still are, they still are avoiding the consequences of "The EVENT"...
It is written in Portuguese, feel free to ask for a translation:
Artigo de opinião Julho 2004
As for any "Bear", my career was condemned since the beggining, and if you can remember those times, you knew that everyone who thought about sell/short the market was "obviously insane". And at the time (does anyone now?), no one was aware of "The EVENT"...
My surprise about what happened in the next 2/3 years was huge. The markets had the biggest plunge ever, confirming my worst expectations, and when I started to feel "some kind of hope", Mr. "I know what I did" does it again, and takes what he defended to be, the path to "unexpected and prolonged contractions".
For me it was enough, I was convinced of what was going to happen, and in the 2004 spring, even with another "DEBT DRIVEN rally" going on, I knew I couldn´t wait longer, I had to "tell the world what I knew". I had to warn at least my family and friends.
You can imagine what happens to someone with these kind of ideias, in a matter of weeks I became an "apocalipse knight", or, even worse, a fool not worthy of attention.
Fortunately (I think), I was not only a "Bear", but I was also a "Contrarian". A contrarian is, by definition, someone who takes up a position opposed to that of the majority, no matter how unpopular.
So I wrote it, "as a fool"...
We took the wrong road years ago. Stock market prices manage to hold longer and higher then I expected, but did not manage to avoid another plunge. This plunge was even bigger and hit faster.
Again, "those in charge" were in denial, , and once more, tried to delay the inevitable. They still are, they still are avoiding the consequences of "The EVENT"...
It is written in Portuguese, feel free to ask for a translation:
Artigo de opinião Julho 2004
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