S&P500 - Update 04/Apr/2012

Daily chart is bearish under 1407 (1401 ES_F) but watch out for short term support...

Where are the bears?

Everyone is sure of the upside potential of the S&P500. Price is giving them a strong support...

Sentiment is evident, as bulls are clearly the majority here.

I will watch carefully 1407 (1401 ES_F) as the key level for the next few hours. Keep in mind another round of bearish divergences on the daily chart.

I am waiting to (again) short this market. Going against the tide? Yup, but definitely against the crowd!...

S&P500 - Quarter ending this week...

An exhaustion gap appears at the end of a trend and its usually a sign of shifting momentum.
Until I can be sure, today´s gap could also be a continuation one, which would point, as the daily chart, to 1433/37 until the end of the week.

I will stay neutral above 1414...

As defended yday, I would not trade a straight move up, but I am definitely curious about the nature of today´s gap, as participants, for now, clearly already made his bets at the open. They bought calls, while dumping protecion, again...

S&P500 - Setup 26/Mar/2012

Just enough to risk about 3 points (hourly).

Looking to a test to friday´s close...

(now -1 @ 1404 and stop @ 1407 ES_F)

S&P500 - As you wish, Your Highness...

One close under 10 days e.m.a. gave me some hope, as I was short, for a test to 22 days or even 50 days e.m.a.
It looks like we have more to run before I can get my (decent) pullback.
S&P500 can easily touch 1432 this week, as long as price keeps above 1400...

I am not going to trade a straight up move to there, so I will be waiting for some kind if consolidation here, to get in.
To sell this, S&P500 must be under 1407.75 (ES_F 1401/2), and the hourly chart must support a clear setup (as in previous plan)...

VIX is trying to tell something around here, but one should first listen to price, as it is the one who rules, the King...  

S&P500 - Setup (21/Mar/2012) update

Another gap down open after a test to previous lows (now resistance) during overnight.
According to plan, added @ 1393/4 (ES_F ~ 1399/1400 SPX). (Now: 2 @ 1404 + 1 @ 1394)
To the bears case, price must stay in yday range or below. If not, bulls will lead the way...

The plan is based on the expectation SPX will test (at least) 1377 (71/72 ES_F) without any strong rebound. So break even it after today´s open (cover ES_F: 1 @ 1396 + 2 @ 1401.5), as I did not like first hour candle...

Short term overbought again, so breakout will depend on the participants reaction, which by the way, spent the first half-hour buying the dip, and the second and third dumping some more protection. Again, not good for the bulls, good for our plan.

JPYUSD (SPOT) - Short term pullback?

The plunge was fast. A strong ADX is not a good sign for bulls... Last year lows can be next!

Although price action last few days gave buyers some hope, they still need to regain the 22 days e.m.average.