S&P500 - 1371... Again...

Looks like price do not want bears to go away, or even worse, is trying to wash out all the bulls out there. The big-picture signaled the first warning in months...

The daily chart is also pointing down and one should defend a bearish bias under the short term exponential moving averages (Stay bearish if S&P500 < 1392.78).

Keep in mind that volatility is holding above 15. Last week price action could mean that, on the contrary, VIX is about to explode on the upside...



S&P500 - Above 1371...

Here we are again, still trying to regain previous short term support, but clearly above 1371. I maintain a neutral bias above 1371 and under the area pointed out on daily chart...

Price is right at my 2nd bang bang area (previous update), so this is, at least for me, a tradable spot. Yes, I defended a 3rd area above, where S&P500 can draw a second shoulder, but for now, I am not in the mood to hold shorts till there...

Sentiment is improving, but can afford another high... Easily...



S&P500 - Only 1371 can save this...

Since Palindrome day, my line in the sand is well known. I lost all hope on my clear "strong (all time-frames) bearish view" when markets, flying above 1371 (in another FED´s day), climbed to May 2008 highs, ...
Starting on my birthday (3rd of April), price action gave me and the bears, a second chance.

Markets contemplated us (me and the bears) with a top that make my line in the sand even more strong, as it puts the golden retracement right at my key level...

The trend is up for up to 5 months now, so bull can always strike back if they manage to hold 1371, 1340 or even 1289. But lets stay focused on 1371.

Bulls, hold this one, or bears will wait you at 1340. This week...

Short term bang bang areas: 1368/71, 1379/83 and finally 1402/07.

MSFT - A breakdown with a gap down...

Yday close will be the key (31.94). I defend a test to the 200 days e.m.a. (now at 28.28)



EUROSTOXX50 - Bulls have (lots of) work to do...

European big-caps

Europe has clearly doubted, at least until now, from the US moves (or should I say, from FED´s power?). In 2000 and 2007 tops, european big-caps were also a good warn of what to expect...
One could argue that S&P500 is the leader and the others markets will manage to follow.
I think under 2500 this is pure hope...

On a daily basis, the breakdown is already happening. Take a good look to the bearish divergence during LTRO joke...



S&P500 - Update 04/Apr/2012

Daily chart is bearish under 1407 (1401 ES_F) but watch out for short term support...

Where are the bears?

Everyone is sure of the upside potential of the S&P500. Price is giving them a strong support...

Sentiment is evident, as bulls are clearly the majority here.

I will watch carefully 1407 (1401 ES_F) as the key level for the next few hours. Keep in mind another round of bearish divergences on the daily chart.

I am waiting to (again) short this market. Going against the tide? Yup, but definitely against the crowd!...